Circle's IPO Frenzy: How a Stablecoin Firm Redefined Wall Street's Crypto Valuation Playbook
The Numbers That Made TradFi Blink
Let me start with what every analyst missed: Circle’s IPO wasn’t supposed to work. After two failed attempts (remember the SPAC debacle?), this stablecoin issuer finally went public at what looked like conservative multiples. Then came the 180% first-day pop followed by another 30% surge - making it the most explosive debut since 1980 for IPOs over $500M. At 160x earnings, even crypto natives like Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi admitted: “We all underestimated the hunger.”
The Hidden Economics of Digital Dollar Printing
Here’s where it gets ironic. While analysts fixated on Circle’s valuation, they overlooked its profit-sharing agreement with Coinbase - which reportedly takes half of USDC revenues. This creates a bizarre scenario where:
- Coinbase trades at just 3x earnings when backing out its USDC-related profits
- Circle becomes the only pure-play stablecoin stock in public markets
- Tether considers exiting the US rather than complying with proposed collateral rules
“It’s CoreWeave for finance,” remarked Robot Ventures’ Tarun Chitra, referencing the AI infrastructure darling. Both represent scarce proxies for investors desperate for sector exposure.
Regulatory Chess and Banking Countermoves
The Genius Act’s impending vote could reshape the battlefield:
- Circle: Poised to dominate compliant US markets
- Banks: JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reportedly building consortium stablecoins
- Tether: May retreat overseas rather than disclose reserves
As Superstate CEO Robert Leshner observed: “This isn’t just about stablecoins - it’s about market structure.” When traditional banks start wearing crypto jackets while crypto firms adopt banking rigor, you know paradigms are shifting.
Meme Stock or Monetary Policy Tool?
The most telling commentary came from a former Circle employee: “At \(1.2T annual volume with a \)6B valuation, we’re not fintech anymore - we’re monetary policy.” Compare that to Visa’s \(14T volume at \)500B market cap, and suddenly those “absurd” multiples look… logical?
Yet risks loom:
- Profit-sharing drags (hello, Coinbase)
- Banking competitors with deeper balance sheets
- Regulatory overhang from pending legislation
As someone who’s modeled countless valuation scenarios, I’ll say this: When the market values your company based on transactions processed rather than earnings, you’re either running a central bank or heading for a reckoning. Circle might just be both.
QuantPhoenix
Hot comment (12)
¿Quién necesita la Fed cuando tienes Circle?
Después de dos intentos fallidos, Circle logró su IPO y Wall Street no sabe si reír o llorar. ¡180% de subida en un día! Hasta los crypto-nativos como Haseeb Qureshi se quedaron con la boca abierta.
La ironía del stablecoin
Coinbase se lleva la mitad de las ganancias de USDC… ¿no era esto lo que criticábamos de los bancos tradicionales? 🤡 Ahora Circle es el ‘pure-play’ de stablecoins, mientras Tether huye de los reguladores como Messi ante un defensa.
¿Meme stock o política monetaria?
Con $1.2T en volumen anual, Circle ya no es fintech: es el banco central que nadie eligió pero todos usamos. ¡Hasta Visa les da envidia!
Y tú, ¿comprarías acciones o prefieres esperar a que JPMorgan lance su propio stablecoin? 💸 #CryptoBancos
When Stablecoins Get Unstable
Who knew printing digital dollars could be this entertaining? Circle’s IPO rollercoaster (180% pop! 160x earnings!) makes GameStop look like a savings bond.
The Real MVP: Coinbase taking 50% of USDC revenue while trading at 3x earnings. That’s like McDonalds owning the cow but Burger King getting half the steak profits.
Regulators watching this circus: takes notes furiously. Banking consortiums building stablecoins now? Next thing you know, Jamie Dimon will launch JP-Moon.
As we say in crypto: This isn’t financial advice, it’s premium entertainment. Comments open for your best stable jokes!
Wall Street virou circo?
A Circle conseguiu o que nem o Bitcoin fez: deixar os analistas de Wall Street com cara de paisagem! IPO conservador? Piada. 180% no primeiro dia e ainda tem gente dizendo que stablecoin é chato?
Coinbase tá rindo à toa
Sabiam que a Coinbase fica com metade da grana do USDC? É tipo levar seu date pra jantar e ele pedir divisão de conta… depois de comer seu prato!
E aí, quando a moeda digital vira política monetária? Meus bots de análise já estão dançando samba com esses números malucos. Alguém avisa o FED?
Dropem nos comentários: vocês investiriam numa ‘fábrica de dólares digitais’?
Stablecoins 1, TradFi 0
Who knew printing digital dollars could be more exciting than actual banking? Circle’s IPO just schooled Wall Street on valuation math - turns out 180% pops happen when you’re basically a central bank in disguise.
The Irony Dept. Coinbase takes half of USDC profits yet trades at 3x earnings? That’s like Uber drivers earning more than Uber itself. Maybe we should all quit analyzing and start minting stablecoins!
Regulators are sweating bullets while JPMorgan plays catch-up. Place your bets: will the next Fed chair come from Circle? Discuss!
Gila nih IPO Circle!
Dari SPAC gagal dua kali tiba-tiba meledak 180% di hari pertama? Kayak orang diet terus tiba-tiba makan 3 piring nasi padang sekaligus! 🤯
Fakta paling lucu: Coinbase yang dapet separuh untung USDC, tapi nilai sahamnya cuma 3x earning. Meanwhile Circle yang jadi ‘pure-play stablecoin’ malah dijual kayak kue bolu panas!
“Ini bukan fintech lagi, tapi mainan kebijakan moneter!” - kata mantan karyawan Circle. Bener juga sih, volume \(1.2T dengan valuasi \)6B… Visa aja malu-maluin!
Yang sabar ya Tether, kabur ke luar negeri karena takut regulasi. Wkwkwk.
Gimana menurut kalian? Bakal jadi meme stock atau beneran masa depan keuangan? Komentar bawah ya! 🚀
الحسابات الخاطئة لوول ستريت
من كان يتوقع أن شركة ستايلكوين ستهز وول ستريت بهذا الشكل؟ بعد فشلين ذريعين، ها هي سيركل تُحقق قفزة 180% في يومها الأول! حتى خبراء التشفير اعترفوا: “كنا جميعاً غافلين عن الجوع للسوق”.
المفارقة المالية المضحكة
الجميع يركز على تقييم سيركل، لكنهم نسوا أن Coinbase تأخذ نصف أرباح USDC! هل هذه لعبة مالية أم حلقة من مسلسل كوميدي؟
نصيحة للمستثمرين: قبل أن تندفع، تذكر أن السوق قد يكافئك اليوم ويحاسبك غداً. ما رأيكم في هذه المفارقة المالية؟ هل نرى المزيد من المفاجآت قريباً؟
When Stablecoins Get Unstable
Circle’s IPO is the financial equivalent of a caffeine overdose—160x earnings? Sure, why not! TradFi analysts are still blinking in confusion while crypto bros cash in.
Coinbase’s Secret Sauce
The real plot twist? Half of USDC’s profits go to Coinbase. So Circle’s valuation is basically a meme stock wearing a banking suit.
Regulators are sweating, banks are scrambling, and Tether’s packing its bags. Welcome to the circus, folks! 🎪
Drop your hot takes below—is this genius or madness?
Quand Circle fait un carton en Bourse… sans vraiment le mériter ?
160x les bénéfices ? Même les crypto-puristes avouent leur surprise ! Entre Coinbase qui empoche la moitié des revenus et Tether qui prend la poudre d’escampette, on se demande si Circle n’est pas en train d’inventer une nouvelle forme de magie financière.
Et dire que les banques traditionnelles regardent ça en se demandant comment elles ont pu rater le train… Allez, à quand notre tour de jouer à la banque centrale ? 😉
#CryptoCircus #StablecoinSorcery
